The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 included many provisions that are scheduled to expire, mostly at the end of 2025. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) report from January 17, 2025, details these expiring provisions and provides estimates of the revenue effects of extending them. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), extending the expiring individual income tax provisions would reduce federal tax collections by $3.3 trillion over the 10-year budget window from FY2025-FY2034. Extending the higher estate tax exemptions would cost $167 billion, and extending the business provisions would cost $551 billion. Overall, the JCT forecasts that extending these provisions would cost $4 trillion. In most years, the revenue loss would be between 1.2% and 1.4% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Revenue Costs by Major Provisions

The revenue costs of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) major provisions are estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and presented in Table 1 of the report. The revenue costs are calculated for two periods: fiscal years 2025-2029 and fiscal years 2025-2034. A negative value indicates a revenue increase.

Here are the revenue costs of extending the TCJA major provisions, in billions of dollars:

Reduced Individual Tax Rates: $821.8 (FY2025-FY2029) and $2,158.7 (FY2025-FY2034). These rate cuts are the largest source of tax reduction for the individual income tax, accounting for over 70% of the projected revenue loss. The TCJA set individual marginal tax rates at 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%. The top rate of 37% applies to taxable income over $600,000 for married joint filers, or $500,000 for single and head of household filers in 2018, indexed for inflation.
Increase and Modification of Child and Dependent Credit: $297.2 (FY2025-FY2029) and $735.3 (FY2025-FY2034). The TCJA increased the child credit to $2,000 per qualifying child, and also increased the maximum refundable portion of the credit to $1,400 per qualifying child in 2018, which was adjusted for inflation. The act also lowered the refundability threshold to $2,500 and increased the phaseout thresholds to $200,000 for unmarried taxpayers and $400,000 for married taxpayers filing jointly.
Increased Alternative Minimum Tax Exemption: $466.2 (FY2025-FY2029) and $1,357.1 (FY2025-FY2034). The TCJA increased the AMT exemption amounts to $70,300 for unmarried taxpayers and $109,400 for married taxpayers filing joint returns. It also increased the exemption phaseout to $500,000 for singles and $1 million for married taxpayers filing jointly.
Increased Standard Deduction: $471.6 (FY2025-FY2029) and $1,251.0 (FY2025-FY2034). The TCJA increased the standard deduction to $12,000 for single individuals, $18,000 for heads of household, and $24,000 for married individuals filing jointly in 2018.
Changes in Itemized Deductions: -$454.8 (FY2025-FY2029) and -$1,244.3 (FY2025-FY2034). This indicates a revenue increase, not a cost, from changes to itemized deductions. The TCJA limited itemized deductions for state and local income, sales, and property taxes to $10,000. It also limited the amount of mortgage interest that may be deducted to the interest paid on the first $750,000 of mortgage debt, and it repealed the deduction for miscellaneous expenses.
Repeal of Personal Exemption: -$668.3 (FY2025-FY2029) and -$1,717.5 (FY2025-FY2034). This indicates a revenue increase, not a cost, from repealing the personal exemption. The TCJA eliminated the personal exemption, which would have been $4,150 per person in 2018 absent the TCJA changes.
Pass-Through Business Deduction: $263.3 (FY2025-FY2029) and $684.2 (FY2025-FY2034). Taxpayers may deduct 20% of qualified pass-through business income.
Increased Estate and Gift Exemption: $55.2 (FY2025-FY2029) and $166.9 (FY2025-FY2034). The TCJA increased the federal estate and gift exclusion to $10 million per decedent, adjusted for inflation.
Restore Expensing for Investment: $272.9 (FY2025-FY2029) and $378.5 (FY2025-FY2034). The TCJA allowed full and immediate expensing (100% bonus depreciation) for business assets through 2022, with a phasedown starting in 2023.
International Provisions: $55.4 (FY2025-FY2029) and $141.1 (FY2025-FY2034). This includes the lower tax rate on Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) and the lower deduction for Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII).

It is important to note that the revenue cost depends on the order of estimation due to interactions between the provisions.

Individual Income Tax Provisions

Tax Rate Reform: The TCJA set individual marginal tax rates at 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%. The top rate of 37% applies to taxable income over $600,000 for married joint filers, or $500,000 for single and head of household filers in 2018, indexed for inflation. Before the TCJA, the rates were 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35%, and 39.6%. The top rate of 39.6% would have applied to taxable income over $480,050 for married joint filers, $453,350 for head of household filers, or $426,700 for single filers in 2018, also indexed for inflation. If the TCJA is not extended, the tax rates would revert to the pre-TCJA levels. Extending the TCJA rate reductions is estimated to lose $2,159 billion through 2034. The rate cuts account for over 70% of the projected revenue loss from individual income tax changes.
Pass-Through Deduction: The TCJA created a new deduction, under Section 199A, allowing taxpayers to deduct 20% of qualified pass-through business income. This deduction is limited to the greater of 50% of W-2 wages, or 25% of W-2 wages plus 2.5% multiplied by the value of depreciable property for higher incomes. Specified service businesses such as health, law, and accounting firms, generally cannot claim this deduction. In 2024, these limitations do not apply if taxable income is less than $191,950 (unmarried) or $383,900 (married filing jointly), with a phase-in range up to $241,950 and $483,900 respectively. These thresholds are adjusted for inflation annually. If the TCJA is not extended, this deduction will expire. Extending this deduction would cost $684 billion through 2034.
Limitation on Losses for Noncorporate Taxpayers: The TCJA disallowed a deduction for "excess business losses" for noncorporate taxpayers, treating such losses as a net operating loss (NOL) carryover to the following year. An excess business loss is the amount that a taxpayer’s aggregate deductions from trades and businesses exceed the sum of their aggregate gross income or gain from such activities and $250,000 (or $500,000 if married filing jointly), adjusted for inflation. This provision is applied at the partner or shareholder level for partnerships and S corporations. This provision was extended through 2028 by the Inflation Reduction Act. If this provision is not extended, it would expire after 2028. Extending this provision would increase revenues by $22 billion from FY2029 through FY2034.
Standard Deduction, Child Credit, and Personal Exemption: The TCJA repealed personal exemptions for taxpayers and their dependents. To offset this loss, the TCJA increased the standard deduction and the child tax credit, and provided a family credit for other dependents. If the TCJA is not extended, the personal exemption would return, while the increased standard deduction and child tax credit would revert to prior-law levels. JCT estimates that continuing to disallow personal exemptions would gain $1.7 trillion over 10 years. Extending the increase in the standard deduction was projected to cost $1.3 trillion over 10 years, and extending the child credit provisions was projected to cost $748 billion, with an offsetting gain of $12 billion from requiring work-eligible Social Security numbers for the child for whom the credit is claimed. The net cost of extending all these provisions together is estimated to be $270 billion through 2034.
- Standard Deduction: The TCJA increased the standard deduction to $12,000 for single individuals, $18,000 for heads of household, and $24,000 for married individuals filing jointly in 2018, adjusted for inflation. If the TCJA is not extended, the basic standard deduction amounts for 2018 would have been $6,500 for single filers, $9,550 for heads of household filers, and $13,000 for married taxpayers filing jointly, also adjusted for inflation. JCT estimates that extending this change through 2034 would cost $1.3 trillion.
- Child Credit and Credit for Other Dependents: The TCJA increased the child tax credit to $2,000 per qualifying child and increased the maximum refundable portion of the credit to $1,400 in 2018 (adjusted for inflation to $1,700 in 2024). The act also lowered the refundability threshold to $2,500 and increased the phaseout thresholds to $200,000 for unmarried taxpayers and $400,000 for married taxpayers filing jointly. The TCJA also created a new $500 credit for non-child-credit-eligible dependents. If the TCJA is not extended, the child tax credit and credit for other dependents would revert to pre-TCJA parameters. JCT estimates that extending all of the changes to the child tax credit through 2034 would decrease revenues by $735 billion, offset by $12 billion from the SSN requirement.
- Repeal of Personal Exemptions: The TCJA eliminated the personal exemption, which would have been $4,150 per household member in 2018 absent TCJA changes. If the TCJA is not extended, taxpayers would be able to claim the personal exemption. JCT estimates that extending this change alone would raise an additional $1.7 trillion in revenue through 2034.
Changes in Itemized Deductions: The TCJA made several changes to itemized deductions, including capping the state and local tax (SALT) deduction at $10,000. If the TCJA is not extended, itemized deductions would revert to pre-TCJA rules. JCT estimates that extending all of the TCJA's changes to itemized deductions together would gain $1.2 trillion through 2034.
- Charitable Contributions Deduction: The TCJA increased the percentage limit for charitable contributions of cash to public charities and other qualifying organizations to 60% of adjusted gross income (AGI). The limit is 30% of AGI for cash contributions to nonoperating private foundations, which was unchanged. If the TCJA is not extended, the limit on cash contributions would revert to the pre-TCJA level, generally 50% of AGI.
- State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction Cap: The TCJA limited itemized deductions for state and local income, sales, and property taxes to $10,000. No deduction is allowed for foreign real property taxes. Property taxes associated with carrying on a trade or business are fully deductible. If the TCJA is not extended, there would be no limit on the deduction of state and local taxes.
- Mortgage Interest Deduction: Prior to the TCJA, mortgage interest was deductible on the first $1 million of combined acquisition debt, plus interest on $100,000 of home equity debt. The TCJA limited the amount of mortgage interest that may be deducted to the interest paid on the first $750,000 of mortgage debt. The limitation applies to new loans incurred after December 15, 2017. No deduction is allowed for interest payments on new or existing home equity debt if such debt is used for purposes unrelated to the property securing the loan. If the TCJA is not extended, the mortgage interest deduction would revert to pre-TCJA rules.
- Personal Casualty Loss Deduction: The TCJA limited the itemized deduction for casualty losses to only apply to losses resulting from a disaster declared by the President. Subsequent legislation altered the casualty loss deduction for eligible disaster-related losses by allowing the deduction regardless of whether the taxpayer itemizes, eliminating the 10% of income floor, and raising the dollar floor to $500, but these changes do not apply to disasters that occurred after December 27, 2020. If the TCJA is not extended, the casualty loss deduction would revert to pre-TCJA rules.
- Itemized Deduction for Miscellaneous Expenses: The TCJA temporarily suspended itemized deductions for miscellaneous expenses for tax years 2018 through 2025. These expenses include unreimbursed employee expenses and tax preparation fees. If the TCJA is not extended, these deductions will become available again.
- Overall Limitation on Itemized Deductions: The TCJA repealed the overall limitation on itemized deductions through 2025. If the TCJA is not extended, the total amount of certain itemized deductions would be limited for taxpayers with AGI above certain thresholds.
Other Individual Provisions:
- ABLE Account Contribution Limit: The TCJA increased the annual contribution limits on Achieving a Better Life Experience (ABLE) accounts in certain circumstances. Specifically, a designated beneficiary can contribute an additional amount to their ABLE account equal to the lesser of the federal poverty level for a one-person household or the individual's compensation for the year. The TCJA also made contributions to an ABLE account by that account’s beneficiary eligible for the saver’s credit through 2025. If the TCJA is not extended, the ABLE account contribution limits and eligibility for the saver's credit would revert to pre-TCJA levels. JCT estimates that extending the increase in qualified contributions to ABLE accounts through 2034 would cost less than $500,000, while extending the expansion of the savers credit would cost $2 million.
- 529 to ABLE Account Rollover: The TCJA allows tax-free rollovers from a 529 account to an ABLE account that are equal to or less than the annual ABLE contribution limit, provided that the ABLE account is that of the designated beneficiary of the 529 account (or a member of the designated beneficiary’s family). If the TCJA is not extended, these rollovers would be taxable. JCT estimates that extending this provision through 2034 would cost $4 million.
- Combat Zone Tax Exclusion: The TCJA grants combat zone tax benefits to members of the Armed Forces in the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, if as of the date of enactment, any member of the Armed Forces is entitled to special pay under Section 310 of Title 37 of the U.S. Code as a result of serving in this area. If the TCJA is not extended, this provision would expire in 2025. JCT estimates that extending this provision through 2034 would cost $7 million.
- Discharged Student Loans: The TCJA expanded the categories of nontaxable discharged student loan debt to include student loan debt that is discharged on account of the death or permanent and total disability of the student through 2025. Lawmakers later expanded this provision to cover all discharged student loan debt through 2025. If the TCJA is not extended, student loan debt discharged for reasons other than death or disability would be taxable. JCT estimated the revenue loss of the broader provision at $7.3 billion.
- Bicycle Commuter Reimbursement: The TCJA repealed the exclusion for employer-provided bicycle commuter fringe benefits. If the TCJA is not extended, up to $20 per month in employer reimbursements for qualifying bicycle commuting expenses would be excludable from the employee’s income and wages. JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would gain $160 million.
- Moving Reimbursements Exclusion: The TCJA repealed the exclusion for employer-provided qualified moving expense reimbursements (other than for members of the Armed Forces). If the TCJA is not extended, qualified moving expense reimbursements from an employer would be excludable from an employee’s gross income. JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would gain $7.4 billion.
- Moving Expenses Deduction: The TCJA repealed the deduction for moving expenses (other than for members of the Armed Forces). If the TCJA is not extended, taxpayers could claim an above-the-line deduction for moving expenses. JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would gain $9.8 billion.
- Wagering Losses Deduction: The TCJA included the deductible business expenses of professional gamblers in the definition of losses, such that the total deductions attributable to professional gambling were limited to winnings included in gross income. If the TCJA is not extended, professional gamblers could deduct business expenses related to their gambling activities, and potentially generate a net operating loss. JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would gain $47 million.
Estate and Gift Tax: The TCJA increased the federal estate and gift exclusion to $10 million per decedent (adjusted for inflation). If the TCJA is not extended, the exclusion would revert to $5 million per decedent, adjusted for inflation. JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would cost $167 billion.
Individual Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT): The TCJA increased the AMT exemption amounts to $70,300 for unmarried taxpayers and $109,400 for married taxpayers filing joint returns, and also increased the exemption phaseout to $500,000 for singles and $1 million for married taxpayers filing jointly, indexed for inflation. If the TCJA is not extended, the AMT exemption amounts and phaseout thresholds would revert to pre-TCJA levels. JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would cost $1.4 trillion.

Business Provisions

Expensing of Equipment: The TCJA allowed full and immediate expensing (100% bonus depreciation) for business assets through 2022, with the bonus percentage reduced by 20% per year for four years starting in 2023. If the TCJA is not extended, the bonus depreciation would phase out, and businesses would be required to depreciate assets over time. JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would cost $378 billion.
Citrus Plants Lost by Casualty: The TCJA expanded an existing exception for costs related to edible plants lost due to casualty to also apply to costs for citrus plants lost due to a casualty. If the TCJA is not extended, the exception for citrus plants would expire in 2026. An estimate for the cost of extending this provision was not available in the most recent JCT projections.
Amortization of Research Expenditures: The TCJA required that costs be amortized and recovered in equal amounts over five years for domestic research and 15 years for foreign research. Before the TCJA, research expenditures could be deducted immediately (expensed). If the TCJA provision is not changed, research expenses will continue to be amortized. The JCT's most recent estimates did not include extension of this provision, but the Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimates a cost of $188 billion for FY2025-FY2034 from reinstating the expensing of research expenditures.
Deduction for Interest Paid: The TCJA generally limits deductible interest to 30% of adjusted taxable income for businesses with gross receipts greater than $25 million. After 2021, the TCJA changed the measure of income to earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), whereas before 2022, it was earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, or depletion (EBITDA). If the TCJA is not extended, the measure of income would remain EBIT. The JCT's original estimates in the 2017 TCJA score for all of the changes in the interest deduction limit projected a revenue gain of $253 billion over a 10-year period. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates a revenue loss of $71 billion from FY2025 through FY2034 from reinstating EBITDA as the basis for the limit.
Deductions for Employer Meals: The TCJA expanded the 50% limit on deductions for food and beverages to include employer expenses associated with providing meals to employees through an eating facility for the convenience of the employer. If the TCJA is not extended, this provision would expire, and the pre-TCJA 50% limit would apply to all employer meal expenses. This provision was not in the JCT’s most recent estimates.
Employer Credit for Paid Family and Medical Leave: The TCJA provides a tax credit for employers paying wages to employees on family and medical leave. The credit is 12.5% of wages paid if the employer is paying 50% of wages normally paid, and it increases up to 25% if the leave pay is higher. Employers may claim the credit for up to 12 weeks of paid leave per employee. If the TCJA is not extended, this credit would expire. The JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would cost $4.6 billion.
Qualified Opportunity Zones: The TCJA allowed a temporary deferral of capital gains taxation if gains are reinvested in a qualified opportunity fund and the permanent exclusion of capital gains from investments in a qualified opportunity fund. If the TCJA is not extended, this provision would expire in 2026. The JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would cost $70 billion.

International Provisions

Lower Tax Rate on Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI): The TCJA imposed a minimum tax on the income of U.S.-controlled foreign corporations, known as GILTI. A deduction is allowed for 50% of this income for tax years beginning after December 31, 2017, and before January 1, 2026, with a subsequent deduction of 37.5% thereafter. If the TCJA is not extended, the deduction for GILTI would be reduced from 50% to 37.5%.
Lower Deduction for Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII): The TCJA allowed a deduction for foreign-derived intangible income arising from a trade or business within the United States. The deduction is 37.5% for tax years beginning after December 31, 2017, and before January 1, 2026, with the deduction subsequently reverting to 21.875%. If the TCJA is not extended, the deduction for FDII would be reduced from 37.5% to 21.875%. The JCT estimated that extending these provisions (GILTI and FDII) through 2034 would cost $120 billion.
Increase Rates for the Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT): The BEAT is a minimum tax on corporations with average annual gross receipts of at least $500 million, with deductions attributable to outbound payments exceeding a certain percentage. The rate is 5% for payments in 2018, and 12.5% for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2025. (Taxpayers that are members of an affiliated group that includes a bank or registered securities dealer are subject to an additional increase of 1 percentage point in the tax rates). If the TCJA is not extended, the rate would rise to 12.5% in 2026. The JCT estimated that extending this provision through 2034 would gain $21 billion.

Additional Notes:

The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024) would have reinstated expensing for research and development and reinstate a larger base for the 30% limit on interest deduction (EBITDA), for 2022 through 2025.
The revenue costs of extending the TCJA depend on the order of estimation due to interactions between the provisions.

This detailed breakdown should provide a comprehensive view of the expiring TCJA provisions and their potential revenue effects, according to the Congressional Research Service.

The report can be read at https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R48286

Analysis prepared with assistance from NotebookLM